Almost half (47%) of the countries in the Middle East and Africa have seen their country economic risk rating increase by more than 1 between January and July 2020. Our expectation that tech firms will be increasingly caught in the crossfire is playing out, while countries find themselves under geopolitical pressure to choose sides. November 8, 2020 12:21 pm 0 An index that measures geopolitical risk based on newspaper reports predicts bitcoin returns according to a study of studies. Political risk in the UK improved, following a December 2019 election that gave the Conservative Party the largest parliamentary majority in a decade, boding well for overall stability. RISKMAP 2020 Maritime. Non-honoring of an arbitration award by a government entity (breach of contract). How has the Geopolitical Risk Factor performed? In the same period in 2019, no country posted a rise of this magnitude. Managing Director, US & Canada Credit Specialties Practice Leader, US Practice Leader, Political Risk & Structured Credit | Credit Specialties. Iran’s accidental shooting down of a passenger plane during the recent incidents with the US is likely to strain relations with the international community, while European governments have formally triggered a dispute mechanism in the 2015 nuclear deal, increasing pressure on its sustainability. Geopolitics will dominate the risk environment in the Middle East. Political Risk Outlook 2020 – Executive summary Download the report 16 January 2020. Research Report Climate-Related Financial Disclosure in the Canadian Financial Sector. Rwanda experienced the largest improvement in STPRI score in Africa, increasing from 64.2 to 68.5. This reflects President Paul Kagame’s dominant political position and policy stability, which supports continued economic growth and a stable business environment. Geopolitical risk is the number one global corporate risk. Oil prices took a beating starting in 2014 because of a glut of supply. Strained government finances could also push some governments to seek alternative sources of revenues, possibly leading to contract alterations or expropriation in more profitable sectors. We also found a unidirectional causality relationship running from geopolitical risk index to tourism (Table 5, row 4). Intra- and Inter-State Conflict Conflict itself will continue to be a key geopolitical risk in 2020. The government is unlikely to meet protesters’ demands in 2020, and if unrest continues there is a growing risk of Chinese military intervention in Hong Kong. The tech industry is expected to emerge as a particular battleground for the two countries, as both look to reduce technological dependence on the other. Please log in to access the full marsh.com site. Fiscal challenges will limit governments’ ability to respond to protesters’ demands. The forecast of political and security risk for sub-Saharan Africa. The Citizenship Amendment Act triggered protests beginning in December 2019, and may generate disputes between India’s state and central governments in 2020, challenging the authority of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pricing assets during a pandemic has been tough, with little visibility on the trajectory of Covid-19 infections and the threat of fresh lockdowns looming. The geopolitical flashpoints that we highlighted in March 2020 have not gone away. Register for map updates and to receive our latest political risk analysis. The pandemic’s economic and social impacts are driving significant shifts in global political risk — introducing new dynamics and accelerating existing geopolitical megatrends, such as trade protectionism and the transition to a multipolar world order. Amid these headwinds, many governments face a difficult balancing act. Brexit and the high-stakes US-China trade negotiations remain key concerns. Businesses will be caught up in this rivalry, as the two countries politicize trade and investment relationships. In Argentina, 2020 will provide clarity on President Alberto Fernández’s policy priorities, as investors remain wary of a possible return to state interventionism in the economy. U.S. 2020 Elections: Greatest Geopolitical Risk From trade wars and climate change, to U.S. domestic politics, these are the top risks in 2020, according to new research. Only 23% of countries posted any increased economic risk. This survey reviews the empirical literature concerning the impacts of geopolitical uncertainty as expressed by the highly innovative Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) by Cardara and Iacoviello (2019). Fresh elections in early 2020 may be a flashpoint between Morales supporters and the country’s emergent center-right. The 15th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is published as critical risks are manifesting. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful geopolitical development for … The private PRI market offers a set of credit and political risk coverages that policyholders can buy individually or together to create a bespoke insurance program. Geopolitical risk dominates in early 2020 From coronavirus to impeachment proceedings to inverted yield curves, there is more than enough content to stir the economic waters this week. In the same period in 2019, no country posted a rise of this magnitude. Geopolitical risk is distinct from existing measures of economic, ﬁnancial and political risk. Emergence of competing trade blocs. north-south regional divides, increasing the risk of election related violence. This study examines trends in climate-related financial disclosure among 58 financial firms in Canada including banks, pensions, insurance, financial Crowns, and credit unions over three reporting cycles (2017, 2018, 2019). President Andrés Manuel López Obrador displayed economic pragmatism in 2019, but headwinds may push him towards increasingly populist policies in 2020.